IMF sees Russia’s GDP down 1.8% in 2016, 0.8% in 2017

WASHINGTON, May 6 (PRIME) -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to contract 1.8% in 2016 and 0.8% in 2017, the fund said in its economic outlook for Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European countries published Friday.

The combined GDP of CIS states mentioned in the outlook – Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine – is forecasted to fall by 1.6% in 2016 and to rise by 0.9% in 2017. The fund also expects Ukrainian GDP to rise 1.5% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017, Moldovan GDP by 0.5% this year and 2.5% next year, and Belarusian GDP to fall 2.7% in 2016 and rise 0.4% in 2017.

Except the mentioned CIS states, economies of other countries of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe are likely to grow in 2016, the IMF said.

Among threats to economies of the region’s countries, the fund mentioned the migrant crisis, weak structural growth of the euro zone and a slowdown of China’s economic development.

But political risks are also a significant negative factor for the countries, the fund said citing a research note of the Economist Intelligence Unit. On a scale from zero to 100, risks of political instability in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Turkey, and Bosnia and Herzegovina were rated at 60–70 points, the IMF said.

In April, the Russian Economic Development Ministry said it expects GDP to contract by 0.2% in 2016 and rise by 0.8% in 2017.

End